![]() ![]() We can see a similar structure has formed to the 2018-20 cycle, as coins slowly but surely migrate into cold storage and are removed from the market by the HODLer cohort. Currently, Liveliness is in a multi-year macro downtrend, having peaked in May 2021 when bear market first set in. Liveliness provides a big picture view into the propensity of Bitcoin holders to spend or hold their coins. In the next section, we shall investigate how this translates across to the behavior of existing market participants. We have established that digital asset liquidity is very thin across both the on-chain and off-chain domains. Live Advanced Workbench HODLers Are HODLing This returns to October 2020 levels (BTC prices were ~$10k), highlighting just how quiet capital flows have been both in and out of the asset class year to date. Live Advanced WorkbenchĪ similar story is true on-chain, we can see the absolute value of profit and loss taking events has declined to cycle lows of $268M. The only period in the last 30-months experiencing lower aggregate trade volume was during the 2022 end of year lull. This phenomena is also observed across the Ethereum futures markets, suggesting that this decline in liquidity is an industry wide contraction. Trading volumes in futures markets have also declined to $20.9B/day as liquidity across digital asset markets continues to drain. Near-term 1-week implied volatility is at the second lowest value (36%) on record, whilst 3-month and 6-month contracts are at all-time-lows of 42% and 46%, respectively. Implied volatility across option contracts from 1-week, to 6-months out have also reached a cycle lows. We can see such events are typically experienced during the long, sideways grind as the market finds its feet after a prolonged bearish trend. ![]() ![]() Naturally, this is also reflected across 1-month Realized Volatility, which has reset to 39.6%, one of the lowest recordings since the 2021 bull market. Related Dashboard: This chart is available within the Technical Analysis Toolbox dashboard, alongside the RSI, MACD, Stochastic, and Bollinger Band indicators. The majority tend to occur during the apathetic hangover period that follows a bear market, aligning with our observations of market apathy last week ( WoC 25) If we compare the the 30-day price range, we can see that quiet periods like this are few and far in between. Whilst prices were volatile intra-week, on the broader scale, the market remains on a road to nowhere. The market traded down to $24.8k early in the week, rallied to $26.7k on news of the ETF application by Blackrock, before returning almost back to the opening at $26.3k. This week, the Bitcoin market experienced price swings in both directions, however made little progress overall. □ View all charts covered in this report in The Week On-chain Dashboard. However, the halving event creeps ever closer, now just 305-days away. ![]() Comparisons to past cycles suggests that the market is likely within a transitional period, characterized by investor apathy, and boredom.The undercurrent of BTC supply continues to flow out of exchanges, miners and and whale wallets, and towards HODLer entities of all sizes at a healthy rate.Volatility, volume, and realized value are at multi-year lows, suggesting liquidity is increasingly thin, and investor apathy is now firmly in play. ![]()
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